中国国航（601111）：2024年业绩持续改善，静待盈利释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (601111) is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to improve in 2024, with a total operating revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth. The net loss attributable to shareholders is projected to be 237 million yuan, a reduction of 809 million yuan compared to the previous year [5] - The company is focusing on increasing capacity and improving operational efficiency, with significant growth in both domestic and international operations. The report highlights a strong recovery in international routes, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) showing substantial year-on-year increases [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue is forecasted to grow from 141.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 166.699 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 194.734 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 4.305 billion yuan, and further increasing to 9.265 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin from 5.0% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2025, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [7] Operational Data - The company has implemented a strategy of "increasing investment and securing capacity," leading to a 21.7% year-on-year increase in overall ASK and a 32.8% increase in overall RPK for 2024 [5] - Domestic operations have shown strong growth, with domestic RPK increasing by 15.3% year-on-year, while international operations have seen a remarkable recovery, with international RPK up by 125.6% year-on-year [5] Fleet and Aircraft Introduction - In 2024, the company introduced 36 new aircraft and retired 11, resulting in a fleet size of 930 aircraft, a 2.8% increase from the previous year [5] - The company plans to continue expanding its fleet, with net additions of 30 aircraft in both 2025 and 2026, and 55 aircraft in 2027 [5]