CM BANK(600036) 华福证券·2025-03-28 07:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with revenue growth and profit growth both increasing in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024 [2][3]. - In Q4 2024, revenue growth was 7.5%, a 10 percentage point increase from Q3, driven by a rapid decline in interest rates, increased fair value of bond investments, and improved non-interest income growth [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 7.6% in Q4 2024, up 6.8 percentage points from Q3, primarily due to significant revenue improvements [3]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q4 2024 was 1.94%, with a year-on-year decline of 10 basis points, but the decline rate has been narrowing [4]. - The company experienced a narrowing decline in net fee income, with a decrease of 14.3% in Q4 2024, which is an improvement of 2.6 percentage points from Q3 [5]. - The company’s retail loan non-performing ratio was 0.96% at the end of 2024, reflecting a slight increase, while the corporate loan non-performing ratio improved to 0.94% [5]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 35.32%, a slight increase from 2023 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 346.5 billion, 356.5 billion, and 375.8 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 2.7%, 2.9%, and 5.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 154.1 billion, 160.5 billion, and 169.0 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 3.9%, 4.1%, and 5.3% respectively [7]. - As of March 27, 2025, the closing price was 43.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 892.41 billion yuan [8].