PSBC(SH:601658) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-03-28 07:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The bank's proactive reduction of savings agency fees is expected to drive profit growth, outperforming peers [1][5] - Revenue growth for 2024 is projected at 1.8%, with net profit growth at 0.2%, indicating a slight recovery in revenue growth compared to previous quarters [2] - The bank's net interest margin is under pressure but the rate of decline is expected to narrow in the future [3] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Postal Savings Bank's revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a notable 15.2% growth in other non-interest income [2] - The bank's net interest margin decreased by 12 basis points year-on-year, but the decline rate is expected to slow down [3] - The bank's net profit for 2024 is projected to be CNY 86.48 billion, with a slight increase in the following years [6][14] Asset Quality - As of Q4 2024, the non-performing loan ratio increased to 0.90%, reflecting rising pressure on retail loan quality [4] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased to 286%, indicating potential challenges in managing asset quality [4] Cost Management - The recent adjustment in savings agency fees is expected to save CNY 3.5 billion, which is 3.7% of the bank's pre-tax profit for 2024 [5] - The bank's cost-to-income ratio is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase in operational efficiency [13] Valuation - The target price for Postal Savings Bank is set at CNY 6.70 per share, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of CNY 5.33 [6]