Air China(601111) 信达证券·2025-03-28 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Airlines, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit of -2.37 billion yuan for 2024, an improvement of 8.1 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a 77.3% reduction in losses [6][8]. - The recovery of international routes and a substantial increase in passenger load factor are expected to drive future profitability [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.37 billion yuan, a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6][8]. - Quarterly net profits for 2024 were -16.7 billion, -11 billion, 41.4 billion, and -16 billion yuan, showing a mixed performance throughout the year [6]. Operational Metrics - The total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 21.7% year-on-year, with domestic ASK up by 5.4% and international routes recovering to 85.5% of 2019 levels [4]. - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 32.8%, with domestic RPK increasing by 15.3% and international RPK recovering to 82.2% of 2019 levels [4]. - The overall passenger load factor reached 79.9%, with domestic and international load factors at 81.5% and 75.9%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [4]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% year-on-year, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by 12.4% [5]. - The average fuel price decreased by 7% year-on-year, contributing to a 3% reduction in unit ASK costs [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual narrowing of ticket price declines, with expectations for price recovery in the second and third quarters of 2025 [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 53.92 billion, 78.91 billion, and 101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise to 0.31, 0.45, and 0.58 yuan for the same years, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [8].