YCC(SZ:000878) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-28 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][31]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 20% in 2024, with a projected net profit of 1.26 billion yuan [5][31]. - The decline in profit is primarily due to a significant drop in copper concentrate processing fees, which are at historical lows [2][30]. - Despite short-term pressures in the smelting business, the long-term outlook is positive due to the expected clearing of global copper smelting capacity and government restrictions on new smelting capacity [2][31]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 178 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1% year-on-year [5][33]. - The operating cash flow is expected to decrease significantly to 145 million yuan from 6.44 billion yuan in the previous year [5][33]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 540 million yuan, which represents 43% of the net profit for 2024 [5][6]. Production Analysis - The copper concentrate production is expected to be 54,800 tons in 2024, a decrease of 10,000 tons year-on-year, mainly due to reduced output from the main mine [6][31]. - The smelting output of cathode copper is projected to be 1.206 million tons, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the relocation of Southwest Copper [6][31]. - The company has achieved a record high cathode copper production of 470,000 tons from the Southeast Copper's electrolytic quality improvement project [6][31]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.124 billion, 2.496 billion, and 2.812 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -11.1%, 122.1%, and 12.7% [31][33]. - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.56, 1.25, and 1.40 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.6, 10.6, and 9.4 [31][33].