SINOTRANS(SH:601598) Guohai Securities·2025-03-28 08:14Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in business volume despite weak demand, with specific segments such as contract logistics, sea freight agency, railway agency, and air freight showing year-on-year increases of 4%, 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [5]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 50% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, maintaining a dividend of 0.29 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% based on the closing price on March 25 [6]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with overseas investments rising by 44% year-on-year and overseas revenue increasing by 9% [7][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1056.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.18 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [4]. - The company forecasts revenue growth of 8% in 2025, with projected revenues of 1138.48 billion yuan, and a net profit of 41.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% increase [10][11]. Segment Performance - The professional logistics segment generated revenue of 279.51 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.56% year-on-year, while the profit from this segment decreased by 31.81% [5]. - The agency-related business saw revenue of 671.70 billion yuan, an increase of 8.37%, although profits declined by 2.16% due to intensified competition in water transport, land transport, and warehousing [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 9.3 for 2025, decreasing to 8.7 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][11].