M&G(SH:603899) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-28 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a temporary pressure on performance in 2024, with projected revenue of 24.23 billion yuan (up 3.8% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan (down 8.6%) [4] - The company is focusing on embracing IP growth in its retail large store segment, which is anticipated to yield positive results in the future [4][6] - The new five-year strategy is expected to support steady development, with traditional core businesses showing stable growth and continuous improvement in profitability [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 242.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.0 billion yuan [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 71.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 3.7 billion yuan, down 13.5% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 18.9%, while the net profit margin is projected to decrease to 6.0% [5] - The company’s revenue breakdown shows traditional core business revenue at 9.33 billion yuan (up 2%), with a significant increase in the revenue from Morning Light Technology at 1.14 billion yuan (up 33%) [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.58 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan, and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.71 yuan, 1.91 yuan, and 2.11 yuan [4][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18.1 for 2025, 16.3 for 2026, and 14.7 for 2027 [4][7] Business Segment Insights - The retail large store segment achieved a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase of 11%, driven by the performance of Jiwu Miscellaneous Society [6] - The company has expanded its retail large store count to 779 by the end of 2024, with a net addition of 120 stores during the year [6]