Keda Group(SH:600499) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-28 10:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.96%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 51.90% to 1.006 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in the performance of its investment in Blue Lithium Industry, which saw an 80% year-on-year decline [1][4]. - The company's overseas revenue now accounts for over 63% of total revenue, highlighting the importance of international expansion as a key growth driver. The report suggests that the contribution from Blue Lithium is expected to diminish, allowing the overseas building materials sales to become a core variable for performance growth and valuation [1][2]. - The company has set ambitious annual growth targets for revenue and net profit of 20% and 20.8% respectively for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting strong confidence in its medium to long-term development [1]. Business Segments Summary - In 2024, the company generated revenues of 5.61 billion yuan from building materials machinery, 4.71 billion yuan from overseas building materials sales, and 880 million yuan from lithium battery materials, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 29.0%, and 19.2% [2]. - The gross margins for these segments were 26.6%, 31.2%, and 2.4%, showing a decline compared to the previous year due to intensified competition in the tile market [2]. - The company has established 10 production bases in Africa, with 19 ceramic production lines and additional lines for sanitary ware and glass, projecting a production capacity of over 176 million square meters of ceramic tiles in 2024, which is a 17.6% increase year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 26.0%, down 3.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 10.23%, reflecting a significant drop of 16.68 percentage points [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025 to 2027 to be 1.22 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.77 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 21%, 21%, and 20% [4][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are projected to be 14, 11, and 9 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].