Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 13.45, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 11.44 [1][7][12]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter performance demonstrates resilience, with a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices recently, prompting the upgrade to "Buy" [2][7]. - The report highlights that the supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is becoming more certain, which is expected to positively impact the company's future performance [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from RMB 21,524 million in 2023 to RMB 18,683 million in 2024, followed by a slight increase to RMB 18,695 million in 2025E [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from RMB 2,760 million in 2023 to RMB 1,007 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1,054 million in 2025E [3][15]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from RMB 1.17 in 2023 to RMB 0.43 in 2024, with a slight recovery to RMB 0.45 in 2025E [3][15]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in demand for photovoltaic glass, particularly in North America, where revenue is expected to grow by 232% in 2024, despite an overall revenue decline [7][9]. - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is projected to increase by 15% in March, with further increases expected in April, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [7][9]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company plans to ignite only two new production lines in 2024, with total production capacity expected to decrease to 19,400 tons by year-end [7][9]. - The report indicates that the company is strategically managing its production capacity in response to market conditions, with a focus on maintaining high gross margins [7][9].
福莱特玻璃（06865）：4季度业绩展现韧性，光伏玻璃价格近期强劲反弹，上调至买入