CM BANK(600036) 万联证券·2025-03-28 10:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The company has announced a cash dividend of 2.00 CNY per share for the year 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 35.32%, an increase of 0.3% compared to 2023. The current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of about 4.6% [2]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% as of the end of 2024, unchanged from the previous year. The attention rate and overdue rate have increased to 1.29% and 1.33%, respectively, up by 19 basis points and 7 basis points from the end of the previous year [2]. - Retail customer numbers and AUM (Assets Under Management) continue to grow rapidly, with retail customer numbers reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The total assets managed for retail customers amount to 14.9 trillion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [2]. - The company’s strong capital position and deposit cost advantages are expected to support stable performance, while the retail financial business shows resilience. The gradual recovery in wealth management-related business sales is anticipated to stabilize net income from fees in the retail segment [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2024 is 337,488 million CNY, with a growth rate of -0.48%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to increase to 340,398 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 0.86%, and further growth to 355,627 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 4.47% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 148,391 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1.22%. The net profit is expected to reach 152,710 million CNY in 2025, growing by 2.91%, and 159,053 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 4.15% [3]. - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.99, 0.89, and 0.84, respectively, based on the closing price of 43.26 CNY per share on March 27 [2][3].