TLC(SZ:002466) Soochow Securities·2025-03-28 10:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is expected to be 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208.32% [8] - The report indicates that the company's Q4 performance was significantly impacted by asset impairment and foreign exchange losses, but profitability is expected to gradually recover [8] - The lithium price is anticipated to stabilize at the bottom range, and the company is expected to benefit from the gradual digestion of high-priced inventory, highlighting its cost advantages [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 40.503 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.063 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover to 1.624 billion yuan by 2025, with further increases to 1.861 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.404 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -4.82 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.99 yuan in 2025, 1.13 yuan in 2026, and 1.46 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5.554 billion yuan, with a significant decrease in operating cash flow in Q4 [9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 30.99 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 50.861 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -6.43 for 2024, which is expected to improve to 31.31 in 2025 [1][9] - The company's book value per share is 25.53 yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.39% [6] Operational Insights - The report notes that the company’s inventory levels have decreased, with a significant reduction in high-priced inventory impacting profitability [8] - The production guidance for the company's operations indicates a recovery in output and sales, with expectations for increased shipments in 2025 [8] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on cost management and operational efficiency to navigate market challenges [8]