hbky(SH:600985) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-03-28 10:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27 [4] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025-2027), increasing the minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% [4] - Due to the decline in thermal coal and coking coal prices, the earnings forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 3.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.9, 9.4, and 8.5 times [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw an operating income of 9.089 billion yuan, a decline of 49.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.58% year-on-year [1] Coal Business - The company's coal production in 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, while coal sales were 15.37 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with a cost of 553 yuan per ton, down 6.7% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 548 yuan per ton, down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Coking and Chemical Business - The coking segment reported a loss of 990 million yuan in 2024, an increase in loss of 80 million yuan compared to 2023 [3] - The ethanol segment reduced its loss to 136 million yuan in 2024, down 265 million yuan from 2023, with expectations of turning profitable in 2025 as capacity utilization improves [3] - The civil explosives segment achieved a profit of 359 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 76 million yuan compared to 2023, with significant capacity expansion expected to enhance future profitability [3] Growth Prospects - The company is accelerating the construction of the Tao Hutu mine to ensure completion by the end of 2025 and is also advancing the construction of a significant coal-fired power generation project in Anhui [4] - The chemical industry is focusing on stabilizing ethanol production and advancing various projects to ensure timely completion and production [4] - The company is actively seeking additional wind power resources to maximize the utilization of its renewable energy projects [4]