Peacebird(603877) 国盛证券·2025-03-28 10:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 13% and a net profit decline of 39% in 2024, with projected revenues and net profits of 6.8 billion and 260 million yuan respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on its core product categories and implementing a "one brand" strategy to open collection stores, which is anticipated to improve store efficiency in the future [3][4]. - The company has completed its channel adjustments and is expected to see improvements in store efficiency moving forward [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 6.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 260 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company’s revenue is expected to decline by 12% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 29% [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to increase by 1.1 percentage points to 55.2%, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.6 percentage points to 3.8% [1]. Channel and Inventory Management - The company’s online sales are expected to decline by 12% to 1.833 billion yuan in 2024, while offline direct sales are projected to decrease by 14% to 2.808 billion yuan [4]. - The company is actively managing its inventory, with a year-end inventory increase of 15% to 1.74 billion yuan and a cautious approach to asset impairment losses [5]. - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a net operating cash flow of 860 million yuan in 2024, approximately 3.3 times its net profit [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable revenue growth in 2025, with projected net profits of 359 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 466 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - The company’s long-term strategic goals are clear, despite short-term fluctuations in revenue and performance [5].