supor(SZ:002032) Huaan Securities·2025-03-28 10:50Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from domestic sales recovery driven by national subsidies in 2025, while international sales are anticipated to maintain steady growth through SEB's global expansion. The focus on product innovation and supply chain efficiency is likely to enhance profitability [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 238.6 billion, 252.0 billion, and 264.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4%, 5.6%, and 5.1% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 24.2 billion, 25.7 billion, and 27.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.6%, 6.6%, and 6.1% respectively [8] Revenue Analysis - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 224.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.4 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [10] - Domestic sales in 2024 saw a decline of 1%, but are expected to recover in 2025 with the inclusion of rice cookers and water purifiers in national subsidies [10] - International sales in 2024 increased by 21%, with a projected slight growth in Q4 despite high base effects. The sales from SEB-related transactions reached 7.05 billion yuan, a 19% increase [10] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 was 25.2%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of -3.5 and +0.5 percentage points respectively. The annual gross margin for 2024 was 24.7%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The net profit margin for Q4 and 2024 was down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year respectively [10] Financial Projections - Key financial metrics for 2024A include operating revenue of 22,427 million yuan, net profit of 2,244 million yuan, and a gross margin of 24.7% [13] - Projections for 2025E include operating revenue of 23,856 million yuan, net profit of 2,415 million yuan, and a gross margin of 25.1% [13]