CMOC(603993) 华安证券·2025-03-28 10:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [4][13] - The Congo copper and cobalt production continues to contribute significantly, with the mining and trading sectors driving growth [5][25] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.55 yuan per 10 shares, translating to a cash dividend ratio of approximately 40.32% [6][20] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 582.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, with a net profit of 52.59 billion yuan, down 9.43% year-on-year but up 84.16% quarter-on-quarter [4][13] - The mining and processing sector generated revenue of 652.60 billion yuan, up 46.59% year-on-year, while the mineral trading sector achieved revenue of 1883.56 billion yuan, up 12.06% year-on-year [5][22] - The company’s copper product revenue reached 418.57 billion yuan, a 70.18% increase year-on-year, and cobalt product revenue was 87.43 billion yuan, up 156.71% year-on-year [5][25] Production and Capacity - The company’s copper and cobalt production for 2024 was 65.02 million tons and 11.42 million tons, respectively, representing increases of 54.97% and 105.61% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [5][29] - The TFM project in Congo has successfully ramped up production, contributing to the company’s increased capacity [29] Market Outlook - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and supportive policies, with the average domestic copper price in 2024 estimated at approximately 75,000 yuan per ton, a 9.69% increase from 2023 [7][31] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to recover following an export ban imposed by the Congo government, which is expected to tighten supply [40][43] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 154.4 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 173.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.85, 10.01, and 9.65 [8][44] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company’s strong performance and favorable market conditions [8][44]