Changshu Bank(601128) 华创证券·2025-03-28 11:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Changshu Bank, with a target price of 8.31 yuan [2][7]. Core Views - Changshu Bank achieved a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2][8]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at 0.77%, with a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [2][8]. - The bank's business model focuses on small and micro enterprises, leveraging a replicable "Changshu Micro Loan Model" that enhances risk control and market expansion [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue growth is stable, with net interest income showing a year-on-year increase of 12.1% in Q4, contributing to a cumulative growth of 7.6% [6][8]. - Non-interest income grew by 29% year-on-year, with significant contributions from net fee income and investment income [6][8]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 36.62%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 9.8% increase in expenses [6][8]. Loan and Asset Quality Summary - Total new loans for the year amounted to 18.4 billion yuan, with corporate loans contributing 12.5 billion yuan [6][8]. - Retail loan demand remains weak, with a slight recovery in Q4, but overall new loans decreased year-on-year [6][8]. - The bank has increased its efforts in loan write-offs, with nearly 3 billion yuan written off during the year, maintaining a stable asset quality [6][8]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit growth rates of 10.3%, 16.9%, and 10.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80X for 2025, compared to a historical average of 0.90X [7][8].