CPIC(SH:601601) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-28 11:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 51.56 CNY per share, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][11]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to increase by 64.9% year-on-year, driven by improved investment income and fair value changes. The ongoing transformation of the long-term business is expected to continue to enhance value growth [2][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue: Projected to grow from 323,945 million CNY in 2023 to 404,089 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 25% increase [4][12]. - Net Profit: Expected to rise from 27,257 million CNY in 2023 to 44,960 million CNY in 2024, marking a 65% increase [4][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Forecasted to increase from 2.83 CNY in 2023 to 4.67 CNY in 2024 [4][12]. - Return on Equity (ROE): Anticipated to improve from 11% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 [4][12]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): Expected to decrease from 11.36 in 2023 to 6.89 in 2024 [4][12]. Business Performance - The new business value (NBV) is projected to grow by 57.7% year-on-year in 2024, aligning with expectations. The individual insurance NBV is expected to increase by 57.7%, while the bancassurance NBV is anticipated to surge by 134.8% [11][12]. - The property and casualty insurance segment is expected to see a premium growth of 6.8% in 2024, with non-auto insurance being the main driver [11][12]. Investment Strategy - The company is set to implement the second phase of its long-term transformation plan, focusing on customer management and channel transformation to sustain value growth [11][12].