Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 34.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 881 million yuan, also up by 33.0% [4][5] - The online sales showed significant growth, with a 51% increase year-over-year, while offline sales grew by 22% [5] - The company maintains a high net profit margin of 22.7% despite a slight decline in gross margin due to increased logistics costs [6] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenues to reach 5.212 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 34.17% [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.202 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36.36% [9] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 84.24% in 2025, slightly decreasing from 84.37% in 2024 [9] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from makeup, skincare, and training segments is expected to be 2.3 billion yuan, 1.4 billion yuan, and 150 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 42%, 23%, and 46% [5] - The average selling price for makeup increased by 6%, while skincare saw a decrease of 3% [5] Membership and Repurchase Rates - The repurchase rate for online and offline channels in 2024 is projected to be 27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, showing an increase of 5.5 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points year-over-year [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its store network and introduce new products, with a focus on international markets, indicating significant growth potential [6] - The forecasted net profit for 2027 is expected to reach 1.93 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 27 times [6][8]
毛戈平（01318）：线上高增，复购率提升，保持高净利率