supor(SZ:002032) Huaan Securities·2025-03-28 12:23Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from domestic sales recovery driven by national subsidies in 2025, while international sales are anticipated to maintain steady growth due to SEB's global expansion. The focus on product innovation and supply chain efficiency is likely to enhance profitability [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 23.86 billion, 25.20 billion, and 26.49 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4%, 5.6%, and 5.1% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.42 billion, 2.57 billion, and 2.73 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.6%, 6.6%, and 6.1% respectively [8] Revenue Analysis - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 22.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.24 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [10] - Domestic sales in 2024 saw a slight decline of 1%, but are expected to recover in 2025 with the inclusion of rice cookers and water purifiers in national subsidies [10] - International sales in 2024 increased by 21%, with a projected slight growth in Q4 despite high base effects. The sales from SEB-related transactions reached 7.05 billion yuan, a 19% increase [10] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 was 25.2%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of -3.5 and +0.5 percentage points respectively. The annual gross margin for 2024 was 24.7%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The net profit margin for Q4 and 2024 was down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year respectively, with the sales expense ratio contributing positively [10] Financial Forecasts - Key financial metrics for 2024A to 2027E include: - Revenue: 22.43 billion, 23.86 billion, 25.20 billion, 26.49 billion yuan - Net profit: 2.24 billion, 2.42 billion, 2.57 billion, 2.73 billion yuan - Gross margin: 24.7%, 25.1%, 25.2%, 25.3% - Return on equity (ROE): 34.9%, 40.9%, 42.0%, 42.3% [13][14]