POP MART(HK:09992) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-28 12:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, and a net profit of 3.13 billion yuan, up 188.8% [5][17] - The company has set a revenue guidance for 2025, expecting at least a 50% growth, with total revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan, and overseas revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan [5][32] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points, driven by a higher proportion of overseas business and improved supply chain efficiency [6][22] Summary by Sections International Strategy - The international strategy has shown significant results, with 2024 revenue from overseas reaching 5.07 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 375.2%, and accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [5][18][20] - The company plans to continue expanding its presence in North America and Europe, with expectations for North American revenue to exceed 2.5 billion yuan in 2025 [29] Profitability - The company's net profit margin improved to 24.0% in 2024, up 6.8 percentage points, with adjusted net profit margin at 26.1% [6][22] - The operating profit margin for domestic operations was 33.1%, while for overseas operations it was 35.8%, indicating strong profitability across channels [8][26] IP and Product Performance - The company has diversified its IP operations, with LABUBU becoming the top IP, generating over 3 billion yuan in revenue [7][24] - In 2024, the company had 13 IPs with sales exceeding 100 million yuan, and the classic IPs contributed significantly to revenue, maintaining high popularity [7][25] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue reached 7.97 billion yuan, growing by 52.3%, while overseas revenue was 5.07 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [8][26] - The company has seen substantial growth in various product categories, with hand-held figures being the core category, achieving over 40% growth [30] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.63 billion yuan, 7.81 billion yuan, and 9.82 billion yuan respectively [5][32] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 4.2 yuan, 5.8 yuan, and 7.3 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33.8, 24.4, and 19.4 [5][32]