CSN(600029) 华创证券·2025-03-28 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company is projected to incur a loss of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024, which represents a reduction in loss by 2.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with expectations for continued recovery in profitability [1][6]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in the aviation market, driven by resilient domestic demand and a tightening supply of capacity, which is expected to enhance the industry supply-demand relationship [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Projections: Total revenue is expected to reach 174.224 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9%. Projections for subsequent years are 189.530 billion yuan in 2025, 203.987 billion yuan in 2026, and 219.821 billion yuan in 2027 [2][11]. - Net Profit Forecast: The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.013 billion yuan in 2025, 7.058 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.136 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates of 336.6% and 75.9% respectively [2][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to be -0.09 yuan in 2024, followed by 0.22 yuan in 2025, 0.39 yuan in 2026, and 0.56 yuan in 2027 [2][11]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -64 in 2024, improving to 27 in 2025, 15 in 2026, and 11 in 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 3.1 in 2024 to 2.0 in 2027 [2][11]. Operational Data - Capacity and Load Factor: The available seat kilometers (ASK) are expected to increase by 14.7% year-on-year in 2024, with a load factor of 84.4%, which is an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - Cost Management: Operating costs are projected to be 159.571 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. Fuel costs are expected to be 550 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5.6% increase [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovering aviation market, with expectations of improved profitability as domestic demand remains strong and international routes continue to recover [6][7].