NCI(SH:601336) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-28 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 201.1%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant turnaround with a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.83 billion yuan in the same quarter of 2023 [1]. - The Embedded Value (EV) reached 258.4 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year, while the New Business Value (NBV) was 6.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 107% increase year-on-year, with an NBV margin of 14.6%, up 7.9 percentage points [1]. - The first-year premium income was 27.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year, with long-term premium income (10 years and above) at 3.44 billion yuan, up 19.2% [1]. - The company's net investment yield, total investment yield, and comprehensive investment yield were 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.2 percentage points, +4.0 percentage points, and +5.9 percentage points [1]. Individual Insurance Channel - The first-year premium income from the individual insurance channel was 13.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, indicating stable development [2]. - The retention rates for the 13th and 25th months were 95.7% and 86.2%, respectively, with increases of 5.9 percentage points and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing the effectiveness of the "customer-centric" transformation [2]. - The average productivity per agent increased significantly by 41% year-on-year, with the average monthly productivity reaching 0.81 million yuan [2]. Bancassurance Channel - The first-year premium income from the bancassurance channel was 24.9 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year, while the premium income from regular premiums was 13.9 billion yuan, up 11.5% [3]. - The company focused on enhancing product offerings and increasing the value contribution from regular premium business, achieving growth in both premium income and value [3]. Investment of Insurance Funds - The dual bull market in stocks and bonds significantly boosted total investment and comprehensive investment yield, although the decline in interest rates slightly pressured net investment yield performance [4]. - The company increased its equity allocation significantly, with the proportion reaching 11.1%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while bond allocation was slightly increased to 52.1% [4]. - The proportion of Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) assets increased to 30.7%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, with high-dividend OCI equity tools growing to 30.6 billion yuan, a 471% increase [4]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 26.5 billion yuan, 28.4 billion yuan, and 29.9 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 1.03%, 7.18%, and 5.32%, respectively [5].