TLC(SZ:002466) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-28 13:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][23]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling lithium prices and a mismatch in pricing mechanisms for lithium products [1][8][9]. - Despite the downturn, the company has shown a substantial increase in the production and sales volume of lithium compounds and derivatives, with production up 39.44% and sales up 81.46% year-on-year [1][11]. - The company is focusing on expanding production capacity and has strategic plans in place for resource development in Australia and China, aiming to strengthen its position in the lithium supply chain [15][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, down 208.32% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 5.554 billion yuan, a decline of 75.52% year-on-year [1][8]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected revenues of 10.806 billion yuan, 13.340 billion yuan, and 16.097 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.385 billion yuan, 2.511 billion yuan, and 3.180 billion yuan [3][23]. Production and Capacity - The company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate in 2024, with chemical-grade lithium concentrate accounting for 1.353 million tons [11][19]. - The company operates five lithium chemical product production bases with a total capacity of 91,600 tons per year, and has plans for further expansion [19][21]. Investment and Strategic Position - The company holds a 22.16% stake in SQM, which is expected to provide significant investment returns as SQM expands its lithium production capacity [20][23]. - The company is strategically positioned with strong resource advantages and plans to enhance its midstream lithium processing capacity, which is expected to support long-term growth [3][15].