NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219) 光大证券·2025-03-28 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.83 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue reaching 33.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 16.06%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 4.83 billion CNY, a growth of 39.03% [1][3]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the increase in both volume and price of products, particularly from the Indonesian alumina project and the recovery of overseas demand for aluminum products [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.90 CNY per share for 2024, resulting in a cumulative cash dividend payout ratio of 40.92% for the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.25 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and a net profit of 1.34 billion CNY, up 0.59% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of domestic alumina in 2024 was approximately 3,994 CNY/ton, up about 38% year-on-year, while the average price of overseas alumina was around 503 USD/ton, an increase of 46% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia, with plans to invest in an additional 2 million tons of alumina capacity and a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project [2]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026, indicating a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [2]. Dividend Policy - The company has a planned dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% of the distributable profit for the years 2024-2026, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits of 5.44 billion CNY and 5.66 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.06 billion CNY, reflecting an upward adjustment in earnings expectations [3][11].