龙湖集团（00960）：业绩下行，多元稳增，利润结构优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][20] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in performance, but its diversified business segments are showing stable growth, leading to an optimized profit structure [8][9] - The company reported a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 127.475 billion and a net profit of 10.401 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% and 19.1% respectively [7][8] - The core net profit for 2024 was 69.7 billion, down 38.6% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations [8] - The company’s real estate settlement revenue decreased by 35% to 100.8 billion, while its operational and service revenue increased by 7.3% to 26.7 billion, contributing to 70% of gross profit [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 93.681 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.976 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.5% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.0 [7][9] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 [7] Business Performance - The company’s sales for 2024 were 1,011 billion, down 41.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 7.12 million square meters, a decrease of 34% [8] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, securing only 9 plots for a total of 11.5 billion, a 69% decrease year-on-year [8] - The company’s diversified business segments, including shopping malls and property management, have shown stable growth, with operational service revenue increasing by 7.3% [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company remains in a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.2% and a net debt ratio of 51.7% as of the end of 2024 [8] - The company’s financing cost has decreased to 4.0%, reflecting a 24 basis point year-on-year decline [8] - The company has a long debt maturity profile, with an average term of 10.3 years [8]