Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Ping An Securities·2025-03-28 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 408 million yuan, up 85.5% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 319 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 214.3% [5][9]. - The company is focused on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, aiming to return to a revenue target of 10 billion yuan. It has launched over 1,000 new SKUs in 2024 and is expanding its product matrix across various snack categories [9][10]. - Online sales accounted for 69.73% of total revenue, with significant contributions from platforms like Douyin and Tmall, while offline distribution is also being aggressively developed [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 13.809 billion yuan, 17.979 billion yuan, and 23.462 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 537 million yuan, 747 million yuan, and 972 million yuan [11][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 24.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 3.9% [12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 16.9% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [12]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is diversifying its product offerings with multiple sub-brands targeting various market segments, including infant food and health snacks, to enhance its market presence [9][10]. - The company is leveraging a "D+N" omnichannel strategy to drive online sales while enhancing offline distribution capabilities [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 1.34 yuan for 2025, 1.86 yuan for 2026, and 2.42 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.1, 14.5, and 11.1, respectively [11][12].