Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-29 02:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.14 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in terms of volume and price, with significant profit growth in 2024. Total revenue reached 5.731 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, up 29.95% [1][4]. - The company outperformed the industry average, driven by a high proportion of non-draft beer and effective channel profit cycles. Beer revenue was 5.511 billion CNY, a 7% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 1.4396 million tons, up 2.62% [2][3]. - Cost advantages and product structure upgrades contributed to an increase in gross margin, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 46.3% in 2024. The company effectively controlled expenses, leading to a net profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.731 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 29.95% [5][10]. - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 6.087 billion CNY, 6.388 billion CNY, and 6.648 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 4.1% [4][5]. Profitability - The gross margin improved to 46.3% in 2024, driven by a 2.5% decrease in cost per ton, primarily due to lower raw material prices. The net profit margin reached 14.14% [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in profitability, with net profit projections of 973 million CNY, 1.107 billion CNY, and 1.216 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 20.1%, 13.7%, and 9.9% [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focused on the growth cycle of its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, and aims to enhance its market presence in Southern China. The strategy includes deepening marketing reforms and expanding the mid-to-high-end product matrix [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen its restaurant channel operations and innovate in channel capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][3].