CHINA RAILWAY(601390) 国盛证券·2025-03-29 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Group Limited (601390.SH) [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 total revenue is projected to be 1,160.3 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.9 billion, down 17% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced significant cash flow improvement in Q4, with a net cash inflow of 99.3 billion, an increase of 27.2 billion year-on-year [1] - The company is accelerating its expansion into new strategic industries such as water conservancy and clean energy, with new contract amounts in these sectors showing substantial growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 10%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in high-margin investment business scale [1] - The net profit margin for the year was 2.4%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q4 net profit margin was 2.2%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s total operating cash flow for the year was 28.1 billion, a decrease of 10.3 billion year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - The infrastructure segment generated revenue of 992.9 billion, down 9% year-on-year, with railway, highway, and municipal revenues showing mixed results [1] - The mining resources segment contributed 11% to the total net profit, with copper prices rising, which is expected to drive profitability [3] - New contracts in emerging businesses, including water conservancy and clean energy, increased by 11% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in strategic new industries [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 28.1 billion, 28.3 billion, and 28.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.13, 1.14, and 1.17 [3][4] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 5.1, 5.1, and 5.0, indicating a stable valuation outlook [4]