国泰君安（601211）：盈利大幅改善，关注业务整合进展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported significant improvement in profitability, with a 2024 revenue of 43.4 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.02 billion yuan, up 39% year-on-year [1][6] - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is expected to create substantial business scale advantages, enhancing market share and operational efficiency [6][7] - The company is focusing on integrating operations to realize cost synergies and improve overall performance [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023 Revenue: 36.14 billion yuan, 2024 Revenue: 43.40 billion yuan, 2025E Revenue: 46.10 billion yuan, 2026E Revenue: 54.36 billion yuan, 2027E Revenue: 66.84 billion yuan [2][10] - 2023 Net Profit: 9.37 billion yuan, 2024 Net Profit: 13.02 billion yuan, 2025E Net Profit: 21.34 billion yuan, 2026E Net Profit: 18.24 billion yuan, 2027E Net Profit: 25.90 billion yuan [2][10] - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 63.88% [2][10] Business Performance - The company's main revenue sources for 2024 include: - Brokerage: 7.84 billion yuan (+16%) - Investment Banking: 2.92 billion yuan (-21%) - Asset Management: 3.89 billion yuan (-5%) - Net Interest: 2.36 billion yuan (-16%) - Net Investment: 14.94 billion yuan (+65%) [6] - The company achieved a weighted ROE of 8.14% for 2024, an increase of 2.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The merger is projected to elevate the combined entity to the top position in terms of total assets, net profit, and various business segments [6][7] - The combined market share in brokerage services is expected to exceed 8%, significantly enhancing client acquisition capabilities [6][7] - The international business expansion is anticipated to accelerate, with plans to cover major global capital markets [6][7]