中国铁建（601186）：Q4业绩降幅明显收窄，新签订单边际改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 showed a significant narrowing of the decline, with total revenue for 2024 at 1,067.2 billion, down 6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 22.2 billion, down 15% year-on-year [1][2] - The new contract signing in Q4 improved marginally, with a total of 15,635 billion signed in the quarter, up 4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The company has a robust backlog with an uncompleted contract amount of 77 trillion, which is 7.2 times the revenue for 2024, ensuring future revenue stability [3] Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 is reported at 10.27%, a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining profitability in infrastructure projects [2] - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 31.4 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of 20.4 billion in the previous year, indicating cash flow pressure due to slow project payments [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.1 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 18.3%, reflecting a stable return to shareholders [1] Business Segmentation - In terms of revenue by business segment, engineering contracting generated 9,312 billion, down 6%, with infrastructure, housing construction, and other engineering segments seeing declines of 4%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - The overseas revenue maintained a steady growth of 9% year-on-year, contrasting with a 7% decline in domestic revenue [1] Future Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 21.5 billion, 21.6 billion, and 21.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.58, 1.59, and 1.61 yuan per share, indicating a gradual recovery [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.2 for 2025, suggesting potential undervaluation and investment opportunity [4]