CMES(601872) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-29 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations due to better-than-expected performance in the container shipping segment [5][9] - The report highlights the strong performance in bulk shipping and the decline in breakeven points for oil tankers, indicating a robust growth platform supported by favorable market conditions [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 5.107 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.59% [5] - The breakdown of profits by segment shows: - Oil tanker transportation contributed a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan, down 14.52% year-on-year, with average VLCC market rates decreasing by 20.53% [6] - Bulk shipping net profit increased by 72.24% year-on-year to 1.548 billion yuan, driven by a 27.30% increase in the BDI index [6] - Container shipping net profit rose by 50.55% to 1.314 billion yuan, supported by a 42.17% increase in regional freight rates [6] - Roll-on/roll-off shipping net profit was 337 million yuan, up 26.58% year-on-year [6] - LNG shipping contributed a net profit of 604 million yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 28.610 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 6.501 billion yuan, representing a growth of 27.3% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in profitability, with a projected net profit of 8.915 billion yuan by 2027 [8] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 2.079 billion yuan for the year, which accounts for 40.70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [9] - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 5.4% if the dividend payout ratio remains consistent [9]