Peacebird(603877) HUAXI Securities·2025-03-29 12:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has opened 8 flagship stores, expecting operational leverage and profit elasticity [1] - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, net profit excluding non-recurring items, and operating cash flow were 6.802 billion, 258 million, 123 million, and 860 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 12.7%, 38.8%, 57.4%, and 32.6% [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.4 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 72.91% and a dividend yield of 2.55% [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 was 6.802 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year, primarily due to store closures and a controlled discount strategy [2][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 38.7% to 258 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.8% [2][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 55.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved franchise gross margins [5] Store Operations - The company closed a total of 358 stores in 2024, with a net opening of 33 stores in Q4 [4] - The total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 3,373, down from 5,214 in 2021 [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing brand image and store efficiency through the opening of flagship stores and the closure of underperforming locations [3][4] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company expects a revenue growth of approximately 10%, with e-commerce facing downward pressure due to discount control [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 7.457 billion and 7.979 billion yuan respectively, while lowering net profit forecasts to 421 million and 507 million yuan [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with projected PE ratios of 18, 15, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]