HDPI(SH:600027) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-29 11:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huadian International, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 28.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, while the total revenue for 2024 was 112.99 billion, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 was 550 million, significantly up from approximately 24 million in Q4 2023, leading to a total net profit of 5.70 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 112.99 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.70 billion, with a growth rate of 26.1% [5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with projections of 0.62 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.80 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - Valuation Metrics: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2024 to 7 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains stable at around 1 [5]. - Dividends: - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 2.148 billion, with a cash dividend ratio of approximately 45.72%, up from 43.65% in 2023 [9]. Operational Insights - Electricity Generation: - In 2024, the company completed an on-grid electricity generation of 2084.53 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.52% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was approximately 511.74 yuan per MWh, down by 1.0% [9]. - Cost Management: - The fuel cost for 2024 is estimated at 70.567 billion, a decrease of 6.49% year-on-year, contributing to an improved gross margin of 8.8%, which is an increase of 2.4 percentage points [9]. - Future Capital Expenditure: - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to 12 billion in 2025, focusing on power generation projects and environmental upgrades [9]. Market Positioning - Target Price: - The target price for the stock is set at 7.5 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price of 5.50 yuan [5].