顺丰控股（002352）：利润及现金流维持高增，看好盈利效率带来的价值提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic business and has opened up opportunities in international markets [2] - The company's profitability and cash flow have maintained high growth, indicating an improvement in profit efficiency and value enhancement [2][3] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][10] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was approximately 3.58%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The express delivery and large parcel segment generated revenue of approximately 200.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.10%, with a net profit of approximately 10.98 billion yuan, up 29.91% [4] - The instant delivery segment saw revenue of approximately 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, with net profit doubling to approximately 132 million yuan [5] - The supply chain and international segment reported revenue of approximately 74.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, but a net loss of approximately 1.32 billion yuan [5] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The peak period for capital expenditure has passed, with 2024 capital expenditure at 9.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.2 billion yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, and free cash flow rose by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.4 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected total dividend payout of approximately 4.1 billion yuan, representing a payout ratio of about 40% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.91 billion yuan, 14.26 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.8%, and 18.1% [9]