Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-03-29 13:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 11.80, up from the previous forecast of 11.20 [2][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of sales volume for the full year 2024, with a continued upward trend in ton price and structure, alongside a significant decrease in ton cost, leading to an expansion in gross sales margin [3][12]. - The report highlights that the company is entering a channel destocking phase in Q4 2024, which is anticipated to lay a solid foundation for growth in 2025 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5,378 million, projected to increase to 5,731 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 624 million in 2023 to 810 million in 2024, marking a significant increase of 30% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.28 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024 [5]. Sales and Profitability - The company achieved beer sales of 1.4396 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with high-end beer product sales rising by 13.96% [12]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 4.3% to 3,828 yuan per ton, driven by strong sales of high-end products [12]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.5 percentage points in 2024, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [12]. Cost Management - The ton cost of beer decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 yuan, attributed to lower barley prices and stable packaging material costs [12]. - The report indicates a notable improvement in cost management, with various expense ratios showing slight declines, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company’s premium product line is expected to continue driving structural improvements and sales growth, benefiting from a favorable channel structure and competitive pricing [12]. - The report suggests that the company’s production efficiency and ongoing cost improvements will support steady profit growth in the future [12].