pingmei coal(SH:601666) Changjiang Securities·2025-03-29 10:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.66 billion yuan (-41.4% YoY, adjusted). In Q4 alone, the net profit was 300 million yuan, down 350 million yuan (-53.3% QoQ, adjusted) and down 560 million yuan (-64.8% YoY, adjusted) [2][6] - The company's long-term coal price contracts have been continuously adjusted downwards, with Q1 prices set at 1540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 213 yuan/ton compared to Q4 2024, indicating potential pressure on Q1 performance. However, the company has strategic plans for future growth, including acquiring exploration rights for a coal mine and increasing its stake in another coal mine [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total coal production of 27.53 million tons, a decrease of 3.18 million tons (-10.4% YoY), and a total coal sales volume of 27.20 million tons, down 3.83 million tons (-12.3% YoY). In Q4, the production was 6.47 million tons, down 1.19 million tons (-15.5% YoY) and sales were 7.12 million tons, down 810,000 tons (-10.2% YoY) but up 52,000 tons (+7.9% QoQ) [11] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1033 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton (+7.1% YoY). In Q4, the price was 1034 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton (+4.1% YoY) and up 115 yuan/ton (+12.5% QoQ) [11] - The sales cost per ton of coal in 2024 was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan/ton (+12.9% YoY), while in Q4 it was 789 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton (+17.7% YoY) and up 181 yuan/ton (+29.7% QoQ) [11] - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2024 was 296 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-5.0% YoY), with a gross margin of 28.7%, down 3.6 percentage points YoY. In Q4, the gross profit was 245 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton (-24.2% YoY) and down 65 yuan/ton (-21.1% QoQ), with a gross margin of 23.7%, down 8.8 percentage points YoY and down 10.1 percentage points QoQ [11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a strategic initiative termed "East to West, Going Overseas," which aims to increase future production capacity. In 2024, it successfully acquired exploration rights for a coal mine in Xinjiang for 1.748 billion yuan, covering 1.668 billion tons of coal reserves, and increased its stake in another coal mine to 60% [2][11] - The company anticipates that the average price of long-term coal contracts will decline significantly in 2025, projecting net profits of 1.218 billion yuan, 1.292 billion yuan, and 1.304 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.75x, 16.73x, and 16.57x [11]