SCSF(SH:600779) Orient Securities·2025-03-29 11:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the white liquor industry, which is nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving economic indicators and consumer confidence [8][12] - The new management is actively reforming the product and market strategy, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market penetration [28][34] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76, 3.03, and 3.42 yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5,218 million, 5,683 million, and 6,345 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.3%, 8.9%, and 11.6% respectively [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 82% for 2024-2026, while net profit margin is projected to be approximately 25.7% to 26.3% [6] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.5 in 2024 to 14.9 in 2026, indicating a potential for upward valuation [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with key indicators such as real estate transactions and consumer spending improving [12][14] - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, which has helped maintain performance during industry downturns [35] - The core consumption scene for mid-range liquor is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in restaurant revenue [42][46] Strategic Initiatives - The new management is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Shuijingfang" and "Diyifang," targeting both mid-range and high-end markets [28][34] - The company is implementing a city-specific strategy to enhance market penetration and adapt to local conditions [34] - The proactive inventory management approach has positioned the company favorably against competitors during challenging market conditions [35]