LI NING(HK:02331) HUAXI Securities·2025-03-29 11:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met market expectations after excluding impairment losses, with a reported net profit of 3.343 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth when adjusted for certain factors [2] - The dividend payout ratio reached a new high of 50% in 2024, up from 45% in 2023, with an annualized dividend yield of 4% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 28.676 billion RMB, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 5.5% to 3.013 billion RMB [2][9] - The EBITDA for 2024 was 6.379 billion RMB, showing a 3.6% increase, and operating cash flow was 5.268 billion RMB, up 12.4% [2] - The gross margin improved to 49.4%, a 1.0 percentage point increase, while the net profit margin decreased to 10.5%, down 1.0 percentage point [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels in 2024 was as follows: distribution at 12.957 billion RMB (up 2.6%), direct sales at 6.883 billion RMB (down 0.3%), e-commerce at 8.305 billion RMB (up 10.3%), and overseas at 531 million RMB (down 0.2%) [3] - The company opened 78 new distribution stores and closed 201 direct sales stores, resulting in a total of 4,820 distribution stores and 1,297 direct sales stores by the end of 2024 [3] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The operating profit margin (OPM) slightly decreased to 12.8%, while the net profit margin was 10.5% [4] - Management and financial expenses increased, contributing to the decline in net profit margin [4] Inventory and Receivables Management - The company's inventory increased by 4.21% to 2.598 billion RMB, with an average inventory turnover period of 63 days [5] - Accounts receivable decreased by 16.67% to 1.005 billion RMB, with a turnover period of 14 days [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with a focus on optimizing store structures and expanding into emerging markets [7] - Long-term growth is expected from the children's clothing segment, which is still in the cultivation phase [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 29.251 billion RMB and 31.012 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.724 billion RMB and 2.965 billion RMB [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 1.05 RMB, down from previous estimates [7][9]