SF Holding(SZ:002352) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-03-29 11:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 284.4 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 23.5% [2] - The company demonstrated resilience in express delivery growth, with a completion volume of 13.3 billion parcels, up 11.3% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 13.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3] Performance Summary - Revenue growth by segment in 2024: - Express delivery: Revenue growth of 5.8%, volume growth of 12% [2] - Economic express: Revenue growth of 11.8%, volume growth of 18% [2] - Freight segment: Revenue growth of 13.8%, with cargo volume growth exceeding 20% [2] - Same-city segment: Revenue growth exceeding 22%, with net profit growth of 162% [2] - Supply chain and international segments: Revenue growth of 17.5%, with international express revenue growth exceeding 20% [2] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company improved management efficiency through lean management, with a decrease in operating costs as a percentage of revenue [3] - Capital expenditure in 2024 was 9.9 billion RMB, down 27% year-on-year, indicating a focus on return on investment [3] - Free cash flow increased by 70% to 22.3 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 40%, up 5 percentage points [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.1 billion RMB, 14.3 billion RMB, and 16.3 billion RMB respectively [4]