CEA(600115) 华泰证券·2025-03-30 04:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to narrow its losses significantly in 2024, with a forecasted revenue of RMB 132.12 billion, representing a 16.1% year-on-year increase, and a net loss of RMB 4.226 billion, which is an improvement from a net loss of RMB 8.168 billion in 2023. The company is projected to turn profitable by 2025 [1][4] - The airline industry is experiencing a recovery, with a notable increase in passenger load factor and a potential rebound in unit revenue per passenger kilometer in 2025 due to tightening domestic supply and stabilizing international ticket prices [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net loss of RMB 4.088 billion, an improvement from RMB 5.561 billion in Q4 2023, primarily due to a 24% decrease in aviation fuel prices. The full-year net loss for 2024 is expected to be RMB 4.226 billion, a reduction of RMB 39.64 billion compared to the previous year [3][4] - The company's operating revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 132.12 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The operating cost is expected to be RMB 126.5 billion, leading to a gross profit of RMB 5.62 billion [6][28] Profitability Forecast - The company has slightly raised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting a net profit of RMB 3.138 billion in 2025 and RMB 6.508 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround from previous losses [4][28] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.14, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.41% [6][28] Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's A/H shares has been set at RMB 5.10 and HKD 3.20, reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.6x for A shares and 1.5x for H shares based on the expected recovery in profitability [4][8] - The company’s historical 10-year average PB is 2.2x for A shares and 1.2x for H shares, indicating a premium valuation due to anticipated improvements in return on equity [4][6]