丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 供需格局持续改善，油价影响尚未显现 ——交运行业 2026Q1 前瞻 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们对交运各子行业 2026 年一季度基本面变化进行梳理，客运、货运供需格局均有所优化， 油价成本冲击尚未显现，盈利处于改善趋势：1）航空：收入与成本共振，盈利大幅改善；2） 机场：流量延续爬坡，产能周期分化业绩；3）快递：需求彰显韧性，盈利持续修复；4）物流： 大宗供应链盈利波动，跨境物流景气向上；5）海运：油散延续改善，集运盈利承压；6）港口： 三大货种吞吐量均较高增速；7）高速公路：景气稳健，盈利确定；8）铁路：受益于油价上涨， 客货有望加速增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 韩轶 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 供需格局持续改善，油价影响尚未显现 ——交运行业 2026Q1 前瞻 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们对交运各子行业 2026 年一季度基本面变化进行梳理，客运、货运供需格局均有所优化， 油价成本冲击尚未显现，盈利处于改善趋势：1）航空：收入与成本共振，盈利大幅改善；2） 机场：流量延续爬坡，产能周期分化业绩；3）快递：需求彰显韧性，盈利持续修复；4）物流： 大宗供应链盈利波动，跨境物流景气向上；5）海运：油散延续改善，集运盈利承压；6）港口： 三大货种吞吐量均较高增速；7）高速公路：景气稳健，盈利确定；8）铁路：受益于油价上涨， 客货有望加速增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% re ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

中国东方航空3月23日中午发布通报称，22日夜，中国东方航空北京首都—上海虹桥航班落 地后，一旅客掉落到座椅缝隙中的手机受挤压冒烟起燃。机组第一时间进行处置，航班运 行、旅客出行未受影响。 校对： 许欣 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 来源：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 证 券 时 报 新 媒 体 矩 阵 高 15 12 JJA TH 人民财讯 券商中国 e公司 数据宝 全景财经 北证 新財富 CHDD TRustway 期货回报 杂志 资讯 新财富 期货日报 创业资本汇 北证资讯 信托百佬汇 te 识别二维码关注 证券时报微信公众号 点击下载app 高级 屏幕下方点个赞， 天天抓牛股！ ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 22 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通 道，短期替代方案情景催生投资机会值得关注 航运方面，霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲 外运缺口。航空货运方面，中东局势扰动外溢导致亚欧空运运力仍偏紧且附加 费承压，国泰货运取消迪拜与利雅得货班至 3 月 31 日并增投欧洲运力。交通新 业态方面，英伟达宣布扩大与 Uber、Lyft 合作并开源推理 VLA 模型 Alpamayo 1，Robotaxi 计划于 2027 年起在美多城落地。低空经济方面，沃飞长空在成都 举办供应链大会集结百余家伙伴，发布百亿机遇清单并获工行 100 亿元授信支 持。国内首个"路空一体"汽车试验场投运，低空飞行器测试验证基础设施迈 出关键一步。 核心观点 ①霍尔木兹通航受阻下 VLCC 转向延布红海通道，西非航线补位对冲外运缺 口。中东局势升级致霍尔木兹通航实质受阻，亿海蓝 AIS 监测显示中资 VLCC 在延布港集结借沙特东西管道开辟绕行通道，并同步增配西非供给以对冲波斯 湾外运中断风险。②中东局势扰动 ...

| | | | ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | | 油运战略价值凸显，快递行业量价双升 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 本报告导读： 航空：国内客座率高企票价上升，国际中欧航线票价大涨，油价影响或小于担忧， 建议把握地缘油价逆向时机。油运：油运战略价值凸显，中国船队价值将超预期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《"超级周期"正在开启，地缘油价逆向时 机》2026.03.21 运输《油运迎来"超级牛市"，期待超高景气持 续》2026.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly emphasizing the value of Chinese tanker assets as a safe haven [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in Aframax tanker rates, which surged by 54% to $188,000 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes [2]. - The report recommends several companies, including China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Merchants South China Shipping, as key players to watch in the sector [2]. - The report notes that the global oil trade routes are being reassessed, with the price at Yanbu port reaching $287,000 per day, indicating strong demand and potential for further growth [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The transportation index fell by 2.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with the shipping sector showing the largest gain of 1.21% among sub-sectors [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index reported a slight decrease of 0.05%, while the crude oil tanker index increased by 4.22% [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the average VLCC rate increased by 22% week-on-week, reaching $230,208 per day, with specific routes like the Middle East to China remaining stable at $410,872 per day [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased volumes in the Atlantic market due to significant price differentials and strategic oil reserve releases [2]. Product Oil Transportation - The LR2-TC1 rate rose by 37% to $118,991 per day, driven by geopolitical factors affecting Middle Eastern exports [2]. - The report notes a 20% increase in MR average rates, reflecting a recovery in the Atlantic market [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report mentions that the BDI recorded a slight decrease, but larger vessels like Capesize saw a 3.1% increase in rates, indicating resilience in the market [2]. - The report highlights increased coal exports from Indonesia and Australia, supporting Panamax rates [2]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [2]. - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the air transport sector remains positive [2]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a recovery in delivery fees due to new policies, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2]. - The report highlights the growth potential of J&T Express in Southeast Asia [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - The report notes resilience in rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with significant week-on-week increases reported [2]. - It suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that several airlines, including China Southern Airlines, are adjusting international flight fuel surcharges due to changes in international fuel prices [1] - China Southern Airlines has announced specific increases in fuel surcharges for various international routes, such as an increase of 100 yuan for flights from China to Southeast Asia, 270 yuan to Australia, 150 yuan to the UAE, 250 yuan for economy class to the US, and 500 yuan for business class to the US [1] - Other airlines like Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Changlong Airlines have also raised their international flight fuel surcharges, with Spring Airlines doubling its surcharge from 180 yuan to 360 yuan for flights from Shanghai to Kuala Lumpur and Penang [1]

3月18日，中国东航跌1.27%，成交额9.37亿元。两融数据显示，当日中国东航获融资买入额4982.62万 元，融资偿还3154.69万元，融资净买入1827.93万元。截至3月18日，中国东航融资融券余额合计3.94亿 元。 融资方面，中国东航当日融资买入4982.62万元。当前融资余额3.90亿元，占流通市值的0.49%，融资余 额超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 融券方面，中国东航3月18日融券偿还18.00万股，融券卖出21.68万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 101.46万元；融券余量81.59万股，融券余额381.84万元，超过近一年60%分位水平，处于较高位。 资料显示，中国东方航空股份有限公司位于上海市闵行区虹翔三路36号,香港金钟道95号统一中心19楼D 室，成立日期1995年4月14日，上市日期1997年11月5日，公司主营业务涉及航空客、货、邮、行李运输 业务及延伸服务;通用航空业务;航空器维修;航空设备制造与维修;国内外航空公司的代理业务。主营业 务收入构成为：客运服务收入92.50%，货运服务收入3.86%，退票费手续费收入1.74%，其他1.28%，地 面服务收入0.62 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines) [2][7]. Core Insights - The air transport industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation leading to price increases, with domestic ticket prices rising by 19.9% year-on-year in February 2026 [10][11]. - The overall capacity growth in the industry has slowed, with domestic capacity growth lagging behind demand growth, resulting in an increase in passenger load factors [10][11]. - International routes are showing strong recovery, with a year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) of 9.0% and 12.4%, respectively, in January-February 2026 [14][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January-February 2026, the overall supply growth in the industry slowed, with domestic ASK/RPK increasing by 3.2%/4.7% and a passenger load factor of 86.7%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - The international market is benefiting from strong demand recovery, with international ASK/RPK at 114.3%/115.3% compared to the same period in 2019 [14][17]. 2. Pricing Trends - The industry saw a year-on-year increase in ticket prices, with domestic economy class prices rising by 1.8% and international prices increasing by 14.1% [10][11]. - The report highlights that the rising fuel surcharge due to increased oil prices will likely lead to further increases in ticket prices, testing the elasticity of demand [10][14]. 3. Fleet Management - As of February 2026, the six major listed airlines managed a total of 3,377 aircraft, with a net decrease of 4 aircraft from the previous month [22][29]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had the largest net reductions in fleet size, each losing 2 aircraft [22][29].