金雷股份：景气上行带动出货高增，零部件重回通胀-20250330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.97 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58% to 173 million RMB, which is at the lower end of the previously disclosed performance forecast [3]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in net profit for Q1 2025, projecting a range of 50-56 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 71% to 91.5% [3]. - The wind power industry is experiencing a boom, with domestic wind turbine bidding expected to reach approximately 160 GW in 2024, a 93% increase year-on-year, which is likely to enhance the company's production capacity and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.0%. However, the net profit for the same quarter fell by 71.8% year-on-year to 24 million RMB [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 21.3%, down 11.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the ramp-up of casting capacity and high depreciation costs [3]. Operational Analysis - The demand for wind turbine castings is strong due to the rapid increase in the proportion of large wind turbines. The company expects an increase in casting product prices in 2025, which will help restore profitability in the casting business [4]. - The company’s casting business is expected to benefit from improved capacity utilization and scale efficiencies as downstream demand continues to grow [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 400 million RMB, 600 million RMB, and 720 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 12, and 10 [5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 40.27% in 2025, 34.54% in 2026, and 15.34% in 2027 [9].