Midea Group(SZ:000333) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-30 05:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - Midea Group is expected to achieve a total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 35 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 26.7 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 69.3% [1]. - Midea Group has introduced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to at least two cash dividends annually, with a minimum of 30% of the average distributable profit from the last three years allocated for cash distribution [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Midea Group's main business gross margin is projected to be 26.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for smart home products is expected to rise to 30.0%, while the ToB business gross margin is anticipated to decrease to 21.4% [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 9.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The home appliance business is expected to generate 269.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. The ToB business is projected to reach 104.5 billion yuan, growing by 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the revenue from the home appliance segment is expected to be 54.1 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the ToB segment is projected to see a revenue of 10.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% increase [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Midea Group's net cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 60.5 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the company’s other current liabilities are projected to be 90.4 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a continued improvement in profitability driven by internal efficiency enhancements and AI applications [3]. - Midea Group's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 42.9 billion yuan in 2025, 46.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.8 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.7x, 12.6x, and 11.6x respectively [4].