建发国际集团：资产结构优化，夯实修复基础-20250330

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 19.29 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 143 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while the core net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.3 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.6% year-on-year. Despite being slightly below consensus expectations, the company has adequately provided for inventory impairment since 2021, and the current unsold resources are of high quality, indicating potential for performance stabilization in the future [1][2]. - The company’s revenue and gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 7% and 2.2 percentage points respectively, reaching 138.6 billion RMB and 13.3%. The decline in net profit is primarily due to a significant increase in inventory impairment losses and tax expenses [2][4]. - The company’s contract sales decreased by 25% year-on-year, aligning with industry trends, but it has improved its cash collection rate and sales equity ratio. The company has focused on optimizing land reserves, with 98% of new land acquisitions concentrated in first- and second-tier cities [3][4]. - Financing costs have decreased, and the company maintains a relatively high dividend payout ratio of 52%, with a dividend yield of 7.36% based on the closing price as of March 28 [4][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue assumptions downward while slightly increasing the gross profit margin estimates for 2025-2027. The estimated EPS for 2025 is 2.07 RMB, with a projected BPS of 13.63 RMB [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 143 billion RMB, with a core net profit of 4.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 6% and a slight decline in net profit of 1.6% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 13.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s contract sales fell by 25% year-on-year, but it improved its cash collection rate to 102% and sales equity ratio to 77% [3]. - The company has a strong market presence in 44 cities, ranking in the top 10 in local markets, particularly in Hangzhou [3]. Financing and Dividends - The company’s financing costs decreased by 19 basis points to 3.56%, and it maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 52% [4]. - The dividend yield is calculated at 7.36% based on the closing price as of March 28 [4][8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue estimates downward while slightly increasing gross profit margin estimates for the upcoming years. The estimated EPS for 2025 is 2.07 RMB, with a target price of 19.29 HKD based on a PB ratio of 1.32 [5][6].