智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，据统计，2025上半年50家样本房企营业收入12049亿 元，同比-16.1%，其中央国企、民企、混合制房企分别同比+4.9%、-32.1%、-26.1%；毛利率为 11.68%，较2024年全年下降0.29pct，预计行业毛利率已走出快速下降通道，进入磨底阶段。销售端， 房企持续分化，头部改善房企逆势有韧性。投资端，房企以销定投，聚焦核心城市核心区域，拿地强度 有所恢复。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 业绩端：房企业绩表现延续分化，毛利率拐点或将至 国联民生证券指出，当前房地产市场一二手房走势分化，核心城市核心区域的优质新房项目去化量价表 现良好，在产品上对老项目和二手房形成压制；二手房多为"以价换量"，价格呈阴跌状态。正常生产经 营的房企积极去化老库存，补充流动性好的优质土储，兼顾流速与利润。在住房进入存量时代背景下， 房企的竞争在于资产质量、产品品质与服务、品牌影响等方面，推荐持续核心城市核心区域拿地的龙头 房企，如绿城中国(03900)、建发国际集团(01908)、滨江集团(002244.SZ)、中国海外发展(00688)、建发 股份(600153.SH)等。 ...

从一二线重点35城表现来看，2025年8月新房价格同环比均降多增少，环比角度上海、杭州等7城实现上涨，同比角度上海、杭州等5 城上涨，其中上海以环比+0.4%、同比+5.9%领跑35城。一线城市中仅上海实现新房价格同环比实现增长。新房1-8月整体同比情况方 面，上海、太原分别以同比+5.8%、+1.1%领跑35城。 投资建议 2025年8月，70城新房销售价格环比降幅持平，同比降幅缩小，一线城市新房价格降幅缩小；二手房方面销售价格环比降幅扩大，同 比降幅缩小。我们认为，今年以来我国房地产市场整体朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进，在止跌回稳的过程中，房价仍可能存在小幅度震 荡，期待后续在政策作用下，房地产市场进一步稳定。在更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策下，存量收储及城中村改造工 作有望加速推进，改善现有住房供求关系，加快止跌回稳进程。推荐标的：（1）布局城市基本面较好、善于把握改善型客户需求的 强信用房企：绿城中国、招商蛇口、中国海外发展、建发股份、滨江集团、建发国际集团；（2）住宅与商业地产双轮驱动，同时受 益于地产复苏和消费促进政策：华润置地、新城控股、龙湖集团；（3）"好房子，好服务"政策下服务品质突出的优 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6%. The decline in second-hand home prices has expanded compared to July [6][9] - The number of cities with declining new home prices was 57, with an average decline of 0.41%, while 69 cities saw a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.59% [6][12] - First-tier cities experienced a narrowing decline in new home prices, down 0.1%, while second-hand home prices remained stable, with a decline of 1.0% [6][14] - The report emphasizes the need for the real estate market to stabilize and recover from the current downward pressure on prices, with a focus on policy adjustments in major cities to boost market sentiment [6][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - New home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% in August [6][14] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices decline by 0.3% and second-hand prices drop by 0.6% [6][14] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.4% decline in new home prices, while second-hand prices remained stable [6][14] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current price declines are the largest since November 2024, indicating significant downward pressure on the market [6][18] - Policy adjustments in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen aim to improve market conditions, although the sustainability of these effects remains uncertain [6][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as New Town Holdings and China Vanke [6] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]

证券研究报告 房地产 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 深圳优化住房政策，多地公积金支持力度提升 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 11 日 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 1.2%、深证成指下跌 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.4%、沪 深 300 下跌 0.8%、房地产（申万）下跌 1.5%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为： 首开股份(+32.0%)、宁波富达(+12.7%)、ST 广物(+12.4%)、上实发展(+9.3%)、珠 江股份(+8.1%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：*ST 南置(-22.6%)、张江高科(-7.9%)、天 保基建(-7.3%)、津投城开(-6.8%)、福星股份(-5.6%)。 联系人 数据跟踪：新房：本周（8 ...

业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 09 月 10 日 好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市五重共振 看好 ——好房子专题报告系列之三 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：销售和融资资金趋紧，收储和城改推进不及预期。 究 / 行 业 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 ⚫ 行业现状：房地产基本面的困境和政策面的约束。基本面，房地产经历了 4 年深度调整 后，目前行业广义需求总量已经见底，二手房的扩容对冲了新房的缩量，一二手房合计 成交已持续稳定 3 年多，问题关键不在于需求、而在于购买力。但二手房成交持续放量 并没能推动房价止跌回稳，楼市"量在价先"的历史经验失效，这源于中产走弱导致的 置换链不畅，从而造成"二手房刚需化+新房改善化"的格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report giving CIFI Holdings (01908) an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 23.51, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential and profitability recovery [1] Group 1: Project Launch and Sales Expectations - CIFI Holdings launched its flagship project in Yangpu, Shanghai, in the fourth week of this month, with expectations that the initial sales rate will exceed 90% and net profit margin will surpass 10% [1] - The potential success of this project is expected to further validate the company's strong sales performance amid significant profit margin recovery [1] Group 2: Dividend and Stock Price Projections - The report anticipates a visibility of a 7% to 9% dividend yield based on the company's performance [1] - It is projected that the stock price could increase by 5% to 10% following the sales results, driven by investor confidence in the gradual recovery of the company's gross margin to high double digits by 2027 [1] Group 3: Earnings Growth Forecast - The forecast includes an annual compound growth rate of over 15% in earnings from 2024 to 2027, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 7 to 8 times [1] - The probability of these projections materializing is estimated to be over 70% [1]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，予建发国际集团(01908)"增持"评级，目标价23.51港元。该行称，建发国际本 月第四周在上海杨浦推出旗舰项目，预期首批单位销售率将超过90%，净利润率超过10%。该项目的潜 在成功将进一步证明公司在显著利润率恢复中的持续销售优异表现，提升7%至9%股息率的能见度。 该行预期该股股价将在有关销售后升5%至10%，基于投资者强化对公司毛利率逐步复苏至2027年高双 位数的信念，转化为2024至2027年逾15%预测盈利年均复合增长率下的7至8倍预测市盈率。该行预期， 此发生的概率高达70%以上。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that on September 8, shareholders of Cinda International Group (01908) transferred shares from HSBC to UBS Securities Hong Kong Limited, with a market value of HKD 1.617 billion, representing 4.17% of the total shares [1] - For the first half of 2025, Cinda International Group reported revenue of RMB 34.165 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1] - The company's profit attributable to equity holders reached RMB 914 million, marking an increase of 11.8% compared to the previous year [1]

财报显示，2025年上半年，建发国际集团实现收益341.65亿元人民币，同比增长4.3%；公司权益持有人 应占溢利9.14亿元，同比增长11.8%。 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，9月8日，建发国际集团(01908)股东将股票由香港上海汇 丰银行转入UBS Securities Hong Kong Limited，转仓市值16.17亿港元，占比4.17%。 ...