证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W5：如何理解上海收储新政？ 上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，模式联动刚需租赁和改 善置换，后续关注实际推进情况。此次浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区将作为 首批试点区，三区在收购范围、收购模式上有一定区别。我们认为，上海 作为核心城市，在市场深度下行的时点推动类收储政策，其信号意义较强。 同时，上海联动刚需（保障性租赁住房）与改善需求（置换），满足保障房 筹集任务、改善市场供需，而且收购范围锚定在低总价小面积房源，收购 后将相关购买力定向引导至总价段更高的新房/二手房市场，有望释放政 策杠杆效应，并且可能打通更高价位段房源的置换链条，以激活市场。试 点三区在收购范围、模式上有细微差别，或也有"摸着石头过河"的意味， 如模式走通，也有望在全市开展更广泛的收购工作。因此，后续应重点关 注三区实际推进的情况，真实政策效力取决于实际做了多少。 以春节周开始和结束日期为锚进行周度对齐。春节前第 2 周，样本城市新 房成交面积为 112.5 万方（同比-45.1%），样本城市二手房成交面积为 183.7 万方 ...

证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 08 日 商业不动产REITs密集申报，上海收购 二手住房用于保租房 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/31-2026/2/6） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二 ...

上海日前落地二手房收购试点政策，建设银行上海分行表示将对上海试点收购二手住房用于保障性租赁 住房项目提供全周期金融支持。摩根士丹利视此为一种象征性举措，认为对内地房屋销售的帮助可能有 限，因此举并未减少整体住房供应，长远甚至可能令供应增加，亦未解决回购计划的资金来源与规模瓶 颈问题，同时业主必须购买新屋方符合资格，考虑到核心城区一手楼价值远高于旧房，意味着业主可能 需要增加杠杆，令政策推行更具挑战性。 该行认为，近期受投资情绪驱动的内房板块跑赢大市表现未必能持续下去，预测过去几星期二手市场销 售回升仅属短暂性，因此继续看好拥有可靠自救能力的优质开发商，包括华润置地及新城控股，同时亦 看好建发国际，料其优质土储可带动盈利恢复增长。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 建發國際投資集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D(1)條，我們在此確認，就上述所列股份類別而言，截至本月底: | | --- | | ✔ 已符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） | | 未符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） | | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32B條或第19A.28B條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37B條或第25.21B條（視情況而定）所載的有關股份類別的最低公眾持股量要求為： | | 適用的公眾持股量門檻 初始指定門檻 - 上市股份所屬類別的已發行股份總數(不包括庫存股份)的25% | | 額外信息 | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

每经AI快讯，建发国际集团(01908.HK)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.8%，报16.11港元，成交额3757.86万港 元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中金发布研报称，考虑减值压力，下调建发国际集团（15.98， 0.46， 2.96%）（01908）25年/26年盈利 预测33%/30%至31.6亿元/35.6亿元，引入27年预测41.2亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9倍26/27年市净率， 维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下调目标价11%至19.1港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27年 市净率，较当前股价有32%的上行空间。 责任编辑：卢昱君 建发国际集团（01908）早盘股价上涨4.32%，现报16.19港元，成交额4746.74万港元。 中金发布研报称，考虑减值压力，下调建发国际集团（15.98， 0.46， 2.96%）（01908）25年/26年盈利 预测33%/30%至31.6亿元/35.6亿元，引入27年预测41.2亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9倍26/27年市净率， 维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下调目标价11%至19.1港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27年 市净率，较 ...

建发国际集团(01908)再涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.8%，报16.11港元，成交额3757.86万港元。 该行预计，受高于预期的存货减值及投资物业冲销拖累，建发国际集团去年核心利润将按年减22%，虽 然短期盈利压力似乎主要体现在年初至今的业绩表现不佳，但仍对其前景持建设性看法。其持续的利润 率复苏、新鲜的土地储备及在豪宅项目的强大专业能力，将使其在减值减少及利润率持续改善的驱动 下，在2026年实现"V型"盈利反弹。 消息面上，汇丰环球研究发布研报指出，建发国际集团目前正面临低迷住宅市场及去年房价大幅修正带 来的盈利压力。在市场情绪疲软及公司上周五(1月23日)完成管理层交接的背景下，该公司可能在2025 年采取激进的减值确认措施，以调整盈利预测。该行将公司2025至2027年的合约销售额、营收预测分别 下调22%至28%及1%至15%；预测毛利率上调0.2至0.5个百分点；核心利润预估分别下调31%、20%、 19%。 ...