顺丰控股：盈利增长强劲，多元业务齐头并进-20250330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 284.4 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion RMB, up 23.5% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The core express logistics business saw a volume increase of 11.5% to 13.26 billion parcels, with revenue from same-city instant delivery rising 22.4% to 8.87 billion RMB [2] - The international and supply chain business grew by 17.5% to 70.49 billion RMB, driven by a significant increase in international express revenue and cross-border e-commerce customer numbers [3] - Operational optimization led to a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 13.9%, with a decrease in cost ratios contributing to improved profitability [4] - The company has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting net profits of 11.80 billion RMB and 14.18 billion RMB respectively, with an EBITDA of 34.90 billion RMB for 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - The express logistics business experienced a volume increase of 11.5% to 132.6 billion parcels, with revenue from time-sensitive, economical, and express services growing by 5.8%, 8.8%, and 13.8% respectively [2] - The same-city delivery segment saw a revenue increase of 22.4% to 8.87 billion RMB, with net profit soaring by 161.8% to 130 million RMB [2] International and Supply Chain - The international and supply chain segment's revenue increased by 17.5% to 70.49 billion RMB, with international express revenue growing over 20% and cross-border e-commerce customers increasing by 24% [3] - The company’s domestic cargo volume accounted for 31.1% of the national air cargo transport volume, with international flights increasing by 19% to 9,100 flights [3] Operational Efficiency - The company implemented operational optimizations that improved gross margins and reduced cost ratios, leading to a net profit margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [4] - Future strategies include enhancing logistics network intelligence and promoting smart supply chain applications to sustain cost reductions and efficiency improvements [4] Financial Projections - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with projected net profits of 11.80 billion RMB and 14.18 billion RMB respectively, and an EBITDA of 34.90 billion RMB for 2025 [5] - The target prices for A-shares and H-shares are set at 48.70 RMB and 51.30 HKD respectively, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [5][9]