坚朗五金：收入短期承压，减员降费推进-20250330

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 37.37 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.638 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 89.99 million, down 72.23% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to weak downstream demand, but there is optimism for profit recovery if real estate sales improve from October 2024 [1][5]. - The company has seen a marginal improvement in the real estate sector, which may positively impact demand for its products in the future [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 6.638 billion in 2024, with a significant decline in various product segments, including a 18.5% drop in door and window hardware revenue [2]. - The overall gross margin for the year was 31.65%, a slight decrease of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company has effectively managed its expenses, with a total expense ratio of 26.84%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, but the absolute value of expenses decreased by 9.1% [3]. - Operating cash flow for the year was RMB 3.9 billion, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales volume [3]. Employee and Cost Reduction - As of the end of 2024, the company reduced its workforce by 12.6% to 12,700 employees, and sales expenses decreased by 12.0% to RMB 1.1 billion [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downwards by 13.8% and 16.2%, respectively, with expected revenues of RMB 6.6 billion and RMB 7.1 billion [5]. - The target price is set at 2x price-to-sales (PS) ratio, with a target price of RMB 37.37, reflecting a cautious outlook based on the company's strong correlation with the real estate market [5].