联邦制药：UBT251落地BD，25年主业看好维稳-20250330

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 18.59 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 13.759 billion RMB in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.660 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factory maintenance in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company has entered a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk for the overseas development and commercialization rights of UBT251, marking a milestone in GLP-1 related transactions in China [2]. - The diabetes segment is projected to grow steadily in 2025, driven by existing product demand and new product launches [2]. - The intermediate segment achieved sales of 2.659 billion RMB in 2024, a 15% year-on-year increase, supported by stable pricing and export opportunities [3]. - The animal health segment saw a 17% year-on-year increase in revenue in 2024, with expectations for accelerated growth in 2025 due to new product launches and partnerships [4]. - The company anticipates a rapid increase in net profit in 2025, supported by the confirmation of UBT251's upfront payment [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 14.945 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.62% [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise to 4.146 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 55.87% increase year-on-year [7]. - The EPS for 2025 is projected at 2.28 RMB, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [5]. Business Segments - The diabetes segment is expected to generate 1.248 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The intermediate segment's revenue is projected to remain stable in 2025, supported by controlled pricing and export opportunities [3]. - The animal health segment is expected to see significant growth in 2025 due to new product launches and collaborations with industry leaders [4]. Valuation - The target price of 18.59 HKD is based on a PE ratio of 7.5x for 2025, compared to a comparable company average of 9x [5].