Midea Group(SZ:000333) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-30 06:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - Midea Group is expected to achieve a total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 35 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 26.7 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 69.3% [1]. - Midea Group has announced a share buyback plan of no less than 5 billion yuan and up to 10 billion yuan, with over 70% of the repurchased shares intended for cancellation [1]. Financial Performance - The home appliance business is projected to generate 269.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, while the ToB business is expected to reach 104.5 billion yuan, growing by 6.9% [2]. - The gross profit margin for the main business in 2024 is forecasted to be 26.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 9.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - Midea Group's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 42.9 billion yuan in 2025, 46.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.8 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.7x, 12.6x, and 11.6x respectively [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from domestic policies promoting demand through trade-in programs and the optimization of high-end brands [4]. - The ToB business is showing positive trends, with improvements across various sectors, particularly in smart building technology and industrial technology [2].