NONGFU SPRING(09633) 光大证券·2025-03-30 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering from past challenges, with expectations for a rebound in bottled water market share in 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion CNY, also up 0.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a potential double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by improvements in bottled water market share and continued focus on product quality and consumer preferences [8][9] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 42.896 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [4] - The revenue for bottled water in 2024 was 159.52 billion CNY, down 21.3% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink tea revenue was 167.45 billion CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s other income and gains reached 2.129 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 15.6% increase, primarily due to increased government subsidies [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities and rising raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was stable at 28.3%, showing resilience despite market challenges [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its market share in bottled water by leveraging its product offerings and marketing strategies [8] - The ready-to-drink tea segment is projected to face slower growth due to high competition and a significant revenue base [8] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 14.130 billion CNY and 15.958 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [9]